
CIES Observatory Predicts Al-Nassr to Win Saudi League Title
The Global Football Observatory "CIES" issued its annual report on predictions for the new season championships 2025-2026, during which it anticipated Al-Nassr winning the Roshan Saudi League title with a probability of 33.2%, surpassing its traditional rival Al-Hilal with a probability of 27%.
The report showed that Al-Ahli came in third place in the probability list with 16.4%, while Al-Ittihad ranked fourth with 12%. The surprise was the entry of Al-Qadisiyah among the top five with a share of 5.4%, surpassing more experienced teams.
On the other hand, Al-Fateh received a probability of 2.5%, while Al-Shabab's chance did not exceed 1.5%, and the rest of the league clubs, such as Al-Ettifaq, Al-Taawun, Dhamak, and Al-Hazem, failed to break the 1% barrier, reflecting the clear gap with the major clubs.
The prediction mechanism relied on a mix of technical and economic factors, including the quality of offensive performance in the opponent's areas, the amount spent on player transfers, in addition to the actual minutes of participation and the level of previous competitions.
The report also included 29 leagues worldwide, where it predicted Liverpool to win the Premier League with a probability of 28.9%, ahead of Arsenal at 18.8% and Chelsea at 16.2%. In Spain, Real Madrid topped the predictions with a probability of 40.6%, followed by Barcelona at 29.6%.
In Italy, CIES favored Inter Milan with a probability of 25.6% over Juventus at 18.2% and Napoli at 17.4%. In Germany, Bayern Munich maintained its absolute lead with a probability of 61.4% compared to only 8.8% for Dortmund, while the competition seemed closer in the UAE and Qatar, with an advantage for Al-Duhail at 39.3% against Al-Sadd at 33.8%.
According to these results, the Saudi league appears as one of the most exciting leagues, as the chances of the four major clubs are notably close, unlike European leagues like the German league, which seems almost settled, increasing the appeal of competition in the new season.
The report showed that Al-Ahli came in third place in the probability list with 16.4%, while Al-Ittihad ranked fourth with 12%. The surprise was the entry of Al-Qadisiyah among the top five with a share of 5.4%, surpassing more experienced teams.
On the other hand, Al-Fateh received a probability of 2.5%, while Al-Shabab's chance did not exceed 1.5%, and the rest of the league clubs, such as Al-Ettifaq, Al-Taawun, Dhamak, and Al-Hazem, failed to break the 1% barrier, reflecting the clear gap with the major clubs.
The prediction mechanism relied on a mix of technical and economic factors, including the quality of offensive performance in the opponent's areas, the amount spent on player transfers, in addition to the actual minutes of participation and the level of previous competitions.
The report also included 29 leagues worldwide, where it predicted Liverpool to win the Premier League with a probability of 28.9%, ahead of Arsenal at 18.8% and Chelsea at 16.2%. In Spain, Real Madrid topped the predictions with a probability of 40.6%, followed by Barcelona at 29.6%.
In Italy, CIES favored Inter Milan with a probability of 25.6% over Juventus at 18.2% and Napoli at 17.4%. In Germany, Bayern Munich maintained its absolute lead with a probability of 61.4% compared to only 8.8% for Dortmund, while the competition seemed closer in the UAE and Qatar, with an advantage for Al-Duhail at 39.3% against Al-Sadd at 33.8%.
According to these results, the Saudi league appears as one of the most exciting leagues, as the chances of the four major clubs are notably close, unlike European leagues like the German league, which seems almost settled, increasing the appeal of competition in the new season.