Report: By the numbers, two years of decline in Vinicius' career after Ballon d'Or loss

Two years have passed since Vinicius Junior lost the Ballon d'Or for 2024, a period marked by a noticeable decline in his numbers and attacking impact with Real Madrid, despite his promise at the time to double his efforts to achieve the award.

On October 28, 2024, Brazilian star Vinicius Junior said: "I will do it 10 times if necessary" in response to Rodri's crowning, but the figures presented by Spanish newspaper Marca reveal a contrary path to his promise.

During his best periods in the 2023/2024 season and the start of the following season, Vinicius Junior scored 0.67 goals per 90 minutes in LaLiga and 0.80 in the UEFA Champions League. However, his rate in the current 2026/2027 season has fallen to 0.15 goals in the league, without scoring any European goals. Additionally, the average time required to score a goal has increased from 125 to 585 minutes, and his goal contributions in the league have decreased from 1.04 to 0.62 per 90 minutes.

The decline was not surprising, as its signs began to show in the latter part of the 2024/2025 season, before the player made an improvement in the following season, scoring 0.51 goals per 90 minutes in the league, with a shooting accuracy of 61.3%, the best during the periods covered in the report. However, his current numbers have raised concerns, as his shooting accuracy has dropped to 38.9%, and his successful dribble rate has decreased to 2.15 per 90 minutes, compared to 2.78 in his best periods.

In the UEFA Champions League, the picture looks more challenging, as Vinicius Junior has not scored any goals this season, and his expected goals rate stands at only 0.10. Additionally, his dribbling attempts have dropped to 2.08, down from over eight attempts during his best periods. Nevertheless, he still maintains his presence in the penalty area with an average of 10.46 touches per 90 minutes in LaLiga, indicating that he is still reaching dangerous areas, but he has lost effectiveness in front of goal.

The decline has also affected his ranking in the Ballon d'Or, finishing second in the 2024 edition and dropping to 16th the following year, and 17th in the latest edition. Marca believes that his return is still possible, especially since his expected goals rate in LaLiga stands at 0.47, which is close to his best figures. However, the biggest challenge remains to regain his scoring instinct, especially with his contract with Real Madrid running until 2032.