Tunisia's shocking drop in chances to qualify for Africa Cup of Nations 2027 as Libya closes in

Tunisia have suffered another setback in their bid to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations Qualification 2027, as their chances of reaching the tournament have significantly diminished following their defeat to Libya by two goals to nil in the match held at the Stade Taïeb Mhiri in Sfax.

Football Meets Data, the Croatian site specializing in statistics, analysis, and sports predictions, has revealed an update on the qualification percentages for national teams, which showed negative developments for the Eagles of Carthage, alongside a significant rise in the chances of the Libya national team, which benefited from its victory in the direct encounter between the two teams.

According to the update published on Saturday, November 14, the chances of the Libya national team qualifying for the Africa Cup of Nations 2027 have jumped to 57.5%, an increase of 37.5 percentage points compared to the predictions that followed the second round of the qualifiers.

In contrast, Tunisia's chances have suffered a sharp decline, as their likelihood of qualifying has dropped to 19.6%, losing 38.7 percentage points from their previous rate. This development reflects the difficulty of their situation following recent results.

With these numbers, Libya has become the frontrunner in the competition for the additional qualification spot in Group 8, according to predictions from the statistical model of the Croatian site.

This setback came after the Tunisia national team fell to Libya by two goals to nil in the third round of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualification, leaving the Eagles of Carthage with only two points after their first three matches, which has complicated their task in the race for qualification.

On the other hand, Libya has increased their tally to four points, strengthening their position in the group and gaining an important boost ahead of the upcoming matches.

This competition gains additional importance as Uganda, one of the host countries alongside Kenya, Tanzania, and Morocco, has secured automatic qualification, leaving one additional spot for Libya, Tunisia, and Botswana to compete for.

Tunisia do not have the luxury of waiting long to correct their course, as they face Libya on November 17, when the two teams meet in Tripoli in the fourth round of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualification.

The match represents a crucial test for the Eagles of Carthage, who need a positive result to restore their chances and reduce the gap with their direct competitor, while the Libyan national team looks to capitalize on their recent victory and achieve another result that strengthens their position in the race for qualification to the Africa Cup of Nations 2027.

Despite the announced percentages remaining statistical forecasts subject to change according to the results of upcoming rounds, they clearly reflect the extent of the shift in the balance of competition within Group E, as the advantage has shifted to Libya at the expense of Tunisia.