Alternative Premier League Tables Reveal Astonishing Differences in Team Rankings
An analytical report published by Opta Analyst on The Guardian featured a hypothetical study titled "Alternative Premier League Tables," aiming to show how team rankings could change if certain game rules were altered or match results were calculated according to different scenarios.
The report is based on the idea that the actual league table does not always fully reflect the performance of the teams. It presents five alternative methods for ranking the league, with numerical examples and clear impacts on teams like Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United.
The first scenario discussed in the report is ranking the teams based on the results of the first half and the second half separately. According to the first half results only, Manchester City would lead by nine points ahead of Arsenal, while City would drop to sixth place if only the second half results were considered, trailing Arsenal by 13 points.
There is also a significant difference in the performance of other teams, with Manchester United dropping from fourth place in the first half to thirteenth in the second half, while Aston Villa jumps from thirteenth to second, and West Ham falls from tenth to nearly last. The report also indicated that the better-performing teams in the second half tend to be relatively younger, which may reflect factors of fitness and physical energy.
The second scenario assumes that matches end at the 90th minute without any injury time, which means canceling all goals scored during injury time. According to this model, Leeds would climb five positions in the standings due to conceding a large number of late goals, while Everton and Fulham would drop three positions due to losing goals they scored in the dying moments.
As for Liverpool, they will gain only two points, which is enough to move them up to fourth place instead of Manchester United. The report indicates that injury time has become an increasingly important factor in the modern English Premier League.
The third scenario completely eliminates goals from set pieces and penalties, which severely affects teams that rely on these situations. Arsenal would lose eight points due to scoring 21 goals from set pieces and penalties, while Aston Villa would lose seven points, and Everton and Sunderland would each lose six points.
On the other hand, Burnley will be the biggest beneficiary as they have conceded many goals from set-pieces compared to what they have scored from them. Brighton and Bournemouth will also benefit due to the weak defense of their opponents in these situations.
The amusing fourth scenario assumes that every ball hitting the post or crossbar counts as a goal, to highlight the narrow margins in football. In this scenario, Arsenal would lose three points and drop to third place, while Manchester City would gain four points to take the lead. Manchester United would make a significant leap by adding ten points due to their frequent shots hitting the woodwork (18 times), moving up to second place.
Fulham will also be the biggest losers with five points, and Aston Villa with four points. The report indicates that the width of the goalpost (approximately 12 cm) could be the difference between a title, a European spot, or relegation.
The report concluded by emphasizing that these alternative tables lie "between everything and nothing," but they highlight the unpredictable nature of football and how small details like the timing of goals or set-pieces can change the course of an entire season. Nevertheless, the report stressed that the actual league table will remain the ultimate standard for judging teams, but these models help in gaining a deeper understanding of team performance and the fine margins that determine competition.
The report is based on the idea that the actual league table does not always fully reflect the performance of the teams. It presents five alternative methods for ranking the league, with numerical examples and clear impacts on teams like Arsenal, Manchester City, and Manchester United.
The first scenario discussed in the report is ranking the teams based on the results of the first half and the second half separately. According to the first half results only, Manchester City would lead by nine points ahead of Arsenal, while City would drop to sixth place if only the second half results were considered, trailing Arsenal by 13 points.
There is also a significant difference in the performance of other teams, with Manchester United dropping from fourth place in the first half to thirteenth in the second half, while Aston Villa jumps from thirteenth to second, and West Ham falls from tenth to nearly last. The report also indicated that the better-performing teams in the second half tend to be relatively younger, which may reflect factors of fitness and physical energy.
The second scenario assumes that matches end at the 90th minute without any injury time, which means canceling all goals scored during injury time. According to this model, Leeds would climb five positions in the standings due to conceding a large number of late goals, while Everton and Fulham would drop three positions due to losing goals they scored in the dying moments.
As for Liverpool, they will gain only two points, which is enough to move them up to fourth place instead of Manchester United. The report indicates that injury time has become an increasingly important factor in the modern English Premier League.
The third scenario completely eliminates goals from set pieces and penalties, which severely affects teams that rely on these situations. Arsenal would lose eight points due to scoring 21 goals from set pieces and penalties, while Aston Villa would lose seven points, and Everton and Sunderland would each lose six points.
On the other hand, Burnley will be the biggest beneficiary as they have conceded many goals from set-pieces compared to what they have scored from them. Brighton and Bournemouth will also benefit due to the weak defense of their opponents in these situations.
The amusing fourth scenario assumes that every ball hitting the post or crossbar counts as a goal, to highlight the narrow margins in football. In this scenario, Arsenal would lose three points and drop to third place, while Manchester City would gain four points to take the lead. Manchester United would make a significant leap by adding ten points due to their frequent shots hitting the woodwork (18 times), moving up to second place.
Fulham will also be the biggest losers with five points, and Aston Villa with four points. The report indicates that the width of the goalpost (approximately 12 cm) could be the difference between a title, a European spot, or relegation.
The report concluded by emphasizing that these alternative tables lie "between everything and nothing," but they highlight the unpredictable nature of football and how small details like the timing of goals or set-pieces can change the course of an entire season. Nevertheless, the report stressed that the actual league table will remain the ultimate standard for judging teams, but these models help in gaining a deeper understanding of team performance and the fine margins that determine competition.