Barcelona Tops Opta Predictions to Win La Liga
Saturday 17-01-2026
The Spanish newspaper Mundo Deportivo reported that the sports analytics computer gave Barcelona a 78.59% chance of winning the La Liga title this season, while Real Madrid received only 19.55%, after the royal team was the favorite following their win in the Clasico in La Liga with a 68.91% chance under the leadership of Xabi Alonso.

Barcelona, the defending champion, leads the league table by 4 points over their closest rival, Real Madrid, which strengthens their chances of winning their 29th title. The analysis gives symbolic probabilities to Atlético Madrid at 1.02% and Villarreal at 0.84% to win the championship, while teams like Betis and Espanyol are considered out of contention with slim chances of qualifying for the Champions League.

Regarding qualification for next season's Champions League, the analysis sees Barcelona as guaranteed at 100%, Real Madrid at 99.91%, while Atlético Madrid and Villarreal almost secure their spots with probabilities of 95.63% and 92.65% respectively.

The data shows that Barcelona started the season as the main favorite with 46.6%, while Real Madrid had 32.1%, before the odds changed after Real Madrid's 2-1 victory in the La Liga Clasico, which gave the royal team a 68.91% chance of winning the league about two and a half months ago.

Since then, Real Madrid has lost nearly half the chances it had before Christmas, making Barcelona the dominant favorite as the season enters its second half.

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